Fertility rates have always varied across countries and cultures. For decades, many nations valued starting and expanding families. However, in recent years many nations have seen a decrease in fertility rates. Why is this? What are the negative effects of rapidly declining fertility rates?
The Economic Effects
Population growth supports economic growth; if fewer people are reproducing, our economy suffers.
An aging population makes government services less accessible, as these programs are no longer fiscally sustainable. Furthermore, low fertility rates impact workforce participation. An inadequate workforce makes the cost of living increase, which means the standard of living declines for the majority of the population. An aging population also impacts innovation, as there are fewer researchers, scientists, and inventors generating new ideas and discoveries.
In terms of maintaining a society, we look at a population’s replacement rate—the number of children a couple must have to replace themselves over their reproductive years. The replacement rate to maintain a society is 2.1 children per woman.
Fertility Rates in America
Before the landmark case Roe v. Wade was passed into law in 1973, there was great emphasis on family planning in America. Getting married and having children was a societal norm that most followed. From the late 1930s through the late 1960s, a minimum of 61% of U.S. adults wanted at least three children per family. In 1973, one or two children per family became the standard and the national fertility rate dropped to an average of 1.8 children per family by 1980.
This significant decline could be attributed to the economic climate and changes in societal norms due to feminism. At the time, women were slowly being integrated into the workforce and embracing having an identity outside of being a mother and wife—and with the legalization of abortion, they were able to terminate a pregnancy if they didn’t want to be pregnant.
Since 1980, the fertility rate has only continued to decline below the acceptable replacement rate. In 2023, there were an average of 1.6 children per woman.
To address the low fertility rate, some American lawmakers propose offering incentives for families to have more babies. Some of these incentives include tax credit expansions and universal preschool.
Around the World
America is not the only country that’s fertility rates have continued to decline over the years. England (1.49 children per woman), France (1.68 children per woman), Germany (1.36 children per woman), Italy (1.2 children per woman), and Spain (1.16 children per woman) were just a few of the countries with incredibly low fertility rates in 2022-2023.
China also ranks fairly low. In 1980, China’s fertility rate was 2.8 children per woman until the government formally implemented the One Child Policy in September of that year. To manage China’s rapidly growing population, the government limited families to having one child. Compliance with this policy resulted in many forced abortions. This policy ended in 2016, but China’s fertility rates still have not recovered. In 2023, China saw only 1.705 children per woman. Like America’s fertility rate, this is well-below the standard replacement rate.
With concern for its economy, the Chinese government has now begun incentivizing families to have more children—some villages offering subsidies for families who go on to have a second or third child. Some other incentives include adding more public kindergarten schools, tax deductions, and increased housing loans.
Fertility Rates & Abortion Bans
Though America’s nationwide average continues to decline for a number of socioeconomic factors, many states enacting abortion bans Post-Dobbs have seen an increase in fertility rates. As of 2023, we have seen a 2.3% increase in births in states with near-total abortion bans. That equates to about 30,000 births annually.
Pro-life states like Texas and Mississippi have seen increases of 5.1% and 4.4% respectively, as they have very few neighboring abortion providers.
Banning abortion nationwide—even worldwide—would save lives and support economic growth.
Learn more about the various stages of fetal development (conception, first, second, and third trimester) and don’t forget to follow us on social media (Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok).